The bitter truth behind the chocolate vanishing act

Nicola Ledsham Associate Director

The Bitter Truth Behind The Chocolate Vanishing Act

Two of Britain’s lunchbox staples – McVities’ Penguin and Club biscuits – have quietly crossed a momentous threshold. They’re no longer legally chocolate.

The internet had a field day, with the public bemoaning the loss of a childhood favourite and poking fun at Club having to change its slogan from “if you like a lot of chocolate on your biscuit, join our club” to “If you like a lot of biscuit in your break, join our club”. But while we all enjoyed some light hearted humour at McVities’ expense, we missed the real story.

This isn’t really about chocolate or biscuits. It’s a warning sign that climate change has moved from an abstract sustainability concern to a direct threat to supply chain stability and brand integrity.

The moment chocolate stops being chocolate

West African countries, which account for over 60% of global supply, have been hit hard in recent years by poor growing conditions, crop disease and erratic rainfall. The International Cocoa Organisation (ICO) reported a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 tones in 2023-24, the largest shortfall in 15 years. Cocoa prices skyrocketed as a result, nearly tripling over 2024.

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Source: Reuters

Manufacturers have been forced to respond by scrambling to manage soaring cocoa prices without passing cost rises onto the consumer.

Pladis, the owner of McVities, chose to reformulate. By substituting cocoa butter with cheaper palm and shea oil, they were able to maintain price points (and taste). But they fundamentally altered their product from a legal standpoint.

Was this a triumph of price point over product? The response has been swift and damaging to consumer trust.

The false economy of reactive reformulation

On paper, Pladis’ decision looked to be pragmatic: a quick fix to keep costs down and shelves stocked. But reactive reformulation rarely comes without consequences. When a beloved product changes overnight, customers feel deceived; it’s brand erosion in real time.

And the fix itself can make matters worse. Substituting cocoa butter for cheaper palm or shea oil might ease the pressure on margines, but it shifts environmental burdens elsewhere – trading one climate risk for another.

Then there’s the public mood. In a cost-of-living crisis, people are quick to spot when they’re getting less for the same price. “Shrinkflation” has become a dirty word, and now, we’re seeing the rise of what some are calling “enshittification” – the slow decay of products and services in the name of profit. It’s no wonder reformulated  brands are being called out. Once trust cracks, competitors don’t need to work hard to step in.

This is bigger than just chocolate

The cocoa crisis is neither isolated nor unprecedented. Climate volatility is systematically destabilising commodity supply chains across sectors, with the impacts felt on our supermarket shelves (and in our pockets).

Olive oil became a luxury ingredient overnight, with drought across the Mediterranean forcing prices sharply up; monsoon disruptions in India during the summer of 2023 destabilised global rice markets; and a poll of 100 of McCain’s potato farmers in the UK found that 57% have already experienced yields ‘significantly impacted’ by climate change.

The pattern is clear: climate-sensitive commodities are fast becoming climate-vulnerable commodities. Companies are being forced to make impossible decisions between cost management, security of supply, and brand promise. 

Stop reacting, start future-proofing

The companies that will survive – and thrive - aren’t treating climate disruption as a one-time shock to absorb. They’re fundamentally rethinking their approach to sourcing, innovation, and value creation. We’ve identified four measures that proactive companies should be taking to weather these storms:

1. Pivot from cost-cutting to climate proofing.

Traditional procurement functions optimise for cost and efficiency. This model worked in a stable climate, but when flooding devastates potato yields across the UK, having ten suppliers instead of five doesn’t matter if they’re all underwater.

The companies that will thrive in a climate-volatile world are those that reframe their procurement function from securing the cheapest inputs to building long-term partnerships, investing in climate science, and treating supplier resilience as a strategic asset. To support its potato farmers across the UK, McCain Foods provides strategic support (and funds) for farmers – including covering the CAPEX costs for new equipment that could enhance their resilience, helping to alleviate cashflow challenges, and providing practical support.

2. Innovate before you’re forced to.

Don’t wait for a crisis to rethink your ingredients. A growing number of companies are rethinking chocolate and beyond, from the ground up, innovating to reduce dependence on vulnerable supply chains.

Mars is partnering with biotech firm Pairwise to develop CRISPR-based, climate-resilient cocoa varieties and has also invested $5 million to fund science-backed techniques to grow hardier peanut varieties. Meanwhile, Barry Callebaut is exploring cocoa alternatives - not as replacements, but as ways to diversify their supply of cocoa-based ingredients.

3. Communicate transparently.

Brands that hope consumers won’t notice changes are playing a losing game in an age of social media and instantaneous information sharing.

The brands that maintain trust are those that get ahead of the story. They communicate honestly about the challenges they face and the trade-offs they’re navigating – inviting consumers into conversation rather than trying to slip changes past them. If Pladis had taken proactive ownership of its reformulation story, it could have taken control of the narrative and shaped the public discourse to their own advantage, positioning itself as a brand navigating climate disruption with transparency and integrity.

4. Know when you can’t afford to compromise.

Not all brands have equal flexibility when it comes to reformulation. If your brand promise depends on product integrity, you cannot easily reformulate your way out of a supply crisis.

Tony’s Chocolonely, built around ethical sourcing and sustainability credentials, can’t compromise on cocoa quality without destroying its brand promise. Hotel Chocolat recently learnt this the hard way, facing backlash for reducing chocolate content in its hot chocolate sachets whilst maintaining prices. Their premium positioning makes such moves particularly risky.

The wake-up call

Penguin and Club’s quiet transformation isn’t going to be a one-off. It’s a preview of the climate-disrupted future every FMCG brand will face. No longer a distant sustainability concern, climate volatility is a direct threat to product integrity, supply chain continuity, and consumer trust.

Brands have a choice to either respond reactively with short-term fixes – and hope that no one notices - or invest strategically in resilience, innovation and transparency to protect brand integrity for the long term.